fig7

Figure 7. Bootstrap uncertainty in variable importance. Mean absolute SHAP values of the substantive predictors with 95% confidence intervals from 300 city-block bootstrap replicates, for (A) the main model and (B) the specification excluding EV stock share. In each replicate, cities were resampled with replacement and all years of each sampled city were retained, preserving within-city temporal correlation. The model was then refitted and mean absolute SHAP importance was recomputed. Bars show the mean across replicates, and error bars indicate the 2.5th to 97.5th percentile range. Calendar-year indicators were included in all model fits as trend controls but are omitted from the display, which ranks substantive predictors only. EV: Electric vehicle; SHAP: SHapley Additive exPlanations.